Global Economy

A Review of Acemoglu and Robinson’s Why Nations Fail

December 9, 2012
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Why Africa’s dawn starts in the East

May 12, 2012
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The following article was recently published in a special supplement (May 10, 2012) titled “Emerging World Order” of the Financial Times. It is a must read for all thinking Pakistanis.

by Peter Shadbolt

If the African continent were to have its own modem-day Statue of Liberty, then Lady Liberty would probably be brandishing a mobile phone rather than a torch. Read more »

World Bank: An exercise of influence

April 3, 2012
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The battle that started in earnest last week to replace Robert  Zoellick as the bank’s president reflects the complications of a world where  power over the institutions of global governance is shifting from those  developed nations that set up the bank to emerging economies. Read more »

State Capitalism in China

November 14, 2011
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China’s state-owned enterprises are on the march and account for 40% of China’s non-agricultural GDP

From the Economist
November 12, 2011

WHEN China joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in December 2001, many people hoped that this would curb the power of its state-owned enterprises. Ten years on, they seem stronger than ever. President Hu Jintao can expect to hear about this at the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation summit this weekend. Hillary Clinton, America’s secretary of state, has warned stridently of the dangers of state capitalism. A Congressional report released on October 26th railed against the unfair advantages enjoyed by state-owned firms and lamented that China is giving them “a more prominent role”. Read more »

World Economy Under Threat From Unprecedented Challenges

September 5, 2011
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By Alen Mattich, The Wall Street Journal

We could be reaching a new form of banking crisis. Read more »

Nouriel Roubini: ‘Karl Marx Was Right’

August 15, 2011
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There’s an old axiom that goes “wise is the person who appreciates candor almost as much as good news” Read more »

New world disorder: US market collapse

August 9, 2011
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By Aaron Task

Welcome to the new world disorder. Monday marked the first day of U.S. trading since America lost its coveted triple-A rating and traders braced for almost anything. Read more »

China calls for international supervision over the issue of US dollars

August 8, 2011
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China’s official news agency has called for “international supervision over the issue of US dollars” Read more »

Dinner with an American political scientist

October 30, 2010
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I attended a dinner last week in Singapore where I had a chance to listen to Ian Bremmer who is the President of Eurasia Group, the world’s leading political risk research and consulting firm. Ian is quite a likeable, almost cute looking guy. He did his Phd in political science from Stanford when he was not even 25 and now teaches at Columbia. He founded Eurasia Group with just $25,000 and grew it into the world’s pre-eminent political risk consulting firm. He appeared relaxed in an open neck shirt on a rather humid Singapore evening.  Read more »

Central Banks in International Currency War

September 28, 2010
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From the Wall Street Journal

Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg News

No politician ever uttered more honest words than Guido Mantega, Brazil’s finance minister, when he argued central banks were engaged in an “international currency war.”

Every country is trying to export its way out of trouble. And the chosen road to net exports is–largely–through devaluation. Read more »

China in $15 billion Ghana Deals

September 24, 2010
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From the Wall Street Journal

By WILL CONNORS

Ghana and China signed project loans and another deal together totaling $15 billion, the latest in a string of Chinese investments on the continent.

The loans, coinciding with a six-day Beijing visit by the West African nation’s president, John Atta Mills, highlight China’s strong interest in resource-rich African countries such as Ghana. Ghana is preparing to tap massive oil fields that are expected to turn it into one of Africa’s biggest energy producers. Read more »

How the mobile internet will transform the BRICI countries

September 6, 2010
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Stiglitz’s views on Asia

August 30, 2010
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From The Asset Magazine

Daniel Yu

In his latest book, Freefall, the 2001 Nobel Laureate  for Economics, Joseph Stiglitz, professor of economics, Columbia University, says “the big lesson of this crisis is that despite all the changes in the last few centuries, our complex financial sector was still dependent on trust. When trust broke down, our financial system froze.”

In his visit to Asia a few months back, Stiglitz sat down with The Asset to share his views on how China and Asia could avoid the  mistakes in the West by having a strong set of  regulations to foster trust.

Stiglitz also discusses how he sees China and Asia developing, the question around the value of the renminbi, how China and America are facing very different challenges and offers advice on reforming local  government financing  in China and how Asia can building better capital markets. Read more »

Is global economy headed for recession?

July 19, 2010
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DAWN, July 19, 2010

The most recent economic data from the United States points to a marked slowdown and has disappointed most economists who had been predicting better results. Major indicators such as Corporate Purchasing Index, Home Sales, Unemployment, Consumer Sentiment, and widely cited Weekly Leading Index (WLI) from the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) have led some analysts to conclude that another recession may be imminent. Not everyone agrees. In fact, the market participants seem to be divided over whether we are headed for a deflation or high inflation in the medium term. Read more »

‘Lehman II’ for European banks?

May 18, 2010
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By Aaron Kirchfeld, Niklas Magnusson and Elena Logutenkova    

May 18 (Bloomberg) — Europe’s banks are facing déjà vu. Less than two years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., fresh tremors in the debt markets are threatening to shake the financial system.This time the concern isn’t about subprime mortgages or exotic derivatives, it’s about banks’ holdings of bonds sold by European Union governments including Greece, Portugal and Spain. Pledges of $1 trillion in EU aid have failed to shore up the euro or dispel doubts about the region’s finances. Read more »

It’s Not About Greece Anymore

May 8, 2010
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Peter Boone and Simon Johnson

May 6, 2010 9:59PM

The Greek “rescue” package announced last weekend is dramatic, unprecedented, and far from enough to stabilize the eurozone.  Read more »

Understanding the Greek aftershocks

May 8, 2010
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From The Financial Times 

By Mohamed El-Erian

Published: May 7 2010 06:56

Given the tragic events in Greece and the financial contamination of other eurozone peripheral countries, most people now recognise that sovereign risk matters and it matters a great deal. Unfortunately, the recognition lag has already caused significant damage, including forcing the current approach to European integration to an historical juncture. Read more »

China takes $3.1 billion stake in Argentina’s oil giant

March 15, 2010
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How to handle the sovereign debt explosion

March 11, 2010
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From the FT.com By Mohamed El-Erian Read more »

Key political risks to watch in Indonesia

March 9, 2010
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By Sara Webb

JAKARTA, March 2 (Reuters) – Strong growth and political stability made Indonesia Southeast Asia’s most attractive investment destination last year, but the outlook is threatened by a struggle between reformers and powerful vested interests. Read more »

Clinton Says U.S. Deficit, Debt a National Security Concern

February 26, 2010
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By Peter S. Green

 

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) — The record U.S. budget deficit and debt should be viewed as a growing national security concern, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told lawmakers yesterday.

“We have to address this deficit and the debt of the U.S. as a matter of national security, not only as a matter of economics,” Clinton said in testimony to the House Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations and related programs. The panel was reviewing the U.S. foreign affairs budget for fiscal year 2011. Read more »

Green Revolution in India Wilts as Subsidies Backfire

February 24, 2010
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[IUREA]

Pritam Singh, who farms 30 acres in Punjab, says the more desperate farmers become, the more urea they use. Overuse is stunting yields.

SOHIAN, India—India’s Green Revolution is withering.

In the 1970s, India dramatically increased food production, finally allowing this giant country to feed itself. But government efforts to continue that miracle by encouraging farmers to use fertilizers have backfired, forcing the country to expand its reliance on imported food. Read more »

The Making of a Euromess

February 16, 2010
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February 15, 2010 

By PAUL KRUGMAN (Noble Laureate)

Lately, financial news has been dominated by reports from Greece and other nations on the European periphery. And rightly so.

But I’ve been troubled by reporting that focuses almost exclusively on European debts and deficits, conveying the impression that it’s all about government profligacy — and feeding into the narrative of our own deficit hawks, who want to slash spending even in the face of mass unemployment, and hold Greece up as an object lesson of what will happen if we don’t. Read more »

Slowdown Hits Emerging Markets

February 11, 2009
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GDP in Developing World Shrinks as Pinch of Recession Proves Acute  

The Wall Street Journal

By JOANNA SLATER and ANTONIO REGALADO   

The global downdraft is hitting the world’s emerging economies with a speed and ferocity few imagined possible just months ago.

Read more »

We’re Borrowing Like Mad. Can the U.S. Pay It Back?

January 12, 2009
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From Washington Post 

By Greg Ip
Sunday, January 11, 2009; B01

In its battle against the financial crisis, the U.S. government has extended its full faith and credit to an ever-growing swath of the private sector: first homeowners, then banks, now car companies. Soon, President-elect Barack Obama will put the government credit card to work with a massive fiscal boost for the economy. Necessary as these steps are, they raise a worry of their own: Can the United States pay the money back? Read more »

The Great Crash, 2008

January 3, 2009
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A Geopolitical Setback for the West

From Foreign Affairs , January/February 2009

Summary: The financial crisis has called into serious question the credibility of western governments and may precipitate an eastward shift of power.

ROGER C. ALTMAN is Chair and CEO of Evercore Partners. He was U.S. Deputy Treasury Secretary in 1993-94. Read more »

Who Broke Global Finance, and Who Should Pay for It?

January 3, 2009
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Book Review: The Making of a Mess

From Foreign Affairs , January/February 2009

Summary: The current economic crisis may have one winner: the Chinese financial model, which — together with the IMF — holds the keys to fixing the problem.

HAROLD JAMES is Professor of History and International Affairs at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs at Princeton University and Professor of History at the European University Institute, in Florence. Read more »

Dollar Staggers as U.S. Unleashes Cash Flood, Deficit

December 15, 2008
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By Bo Nielsen and Daniel Kruger

Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) — The biggest foreign-exchange strategists and investors say the best may be over for the dollar after a four-month, 24 percent rally.

The currency weakened 5.9 percent measured by the trade- weighted Dollar Index after strengthening between July and November as investors bought the greenback to flee riskier assets and repay dollar-denominated loans from lenders reining in credit. Ever since peaking on Nov. 21, the dollar fell against all 16 of the most-widely traded currencies, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Read more »