Osama Dead: What Next for Pakistan?

Osama is dead, Obama is enjoying a surge in popularity, Pakistani military high command is hiding in embarrassment, and the big question for Pakistan is where do we go from here? Regardless of the doubts and reservations expressed by even erstwhile commentators like Robert Fisk, the world believes that Osama was killed by a US covert operations team while all these years Pakistan had denied that Osama was on her soil.

Benazir Bhutto had even half-joked in 2004 that he could be in the basement of Musharraf’s presidency and had told David Frost in November 2007 that Osama was killed by Omar Saeed Sheikh whose handler, she had alleged, was the former head of the Intelligence Bureau Brig. (rtd) Ejaz Shah. She did not live to contradict or clarify that remark nor did anyone follow up on that. We would never find out whether it was a slip of tongue or she was playing hard ball with both Musharraf and Dick Cheney by indicating she was capable of spilling the beans.

While it is easy to lambast the military establishment for obvious reasons, it is not clear if they really have been making a fool of the Americans or some parts of the US establishment have been complicit in the games our generals play. That both Obama and Clinton spoke about Pakistan cooperation indicates a desire to salvage the strained relationship.

Can we assume that whilst our establishment was playing tango with the jihadists of all colours and shades for a decade, the CIA was just an innocent bystander whilst the US gave to Pak Army billions in cash and arms? This would imply that CIA is a bunch of idiots while our spooks were so brilliant. This seems like a big stretch. The way Obama has handled this indicates he wants to close this chapter after strengthening his credentials as a commander-in-chief who is a tough on security matters.

Our anchors and other analysts tend to look through these matters either through ISI lenses or through US establishment’s but the death of Osama and the manner in which his ‘body’ was flown to Bagram and then buried at sea within hours suggests that there is more to this than meets the eye. I won’t speculate what as we have a lot of simpletons who jump to say ‘conspiracy’ while ignoring the long and deep history of the CIA-ISI joint collaboration including the arrest of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (KSM) , a close buddy of Omar Saeed Sheikh who is still alive and whose extradition was never requested by the US government. KSM has never been tried in a civil court.

Further, if some spooks or elements within the establishment had been harbouring Osama, a logical extension of this line of reasoning would be to raise questions about what did they know about 9/11 and what role, if any, they played? This can get really complicated and I do not think Pakistani or US establishment can afford to go in that direction.

Let’s come back to what next question? Who will play the central role in Afghanistan is a key question. Pakistan fancies a leading role but the US has other ideas, among them, an important role for India. Pakistan’s support of the Talibans and other militant group and its hope or belief that it can use this as a bargaining chip seems to be reaching a dead end. The US after following a policy of “carrot and stick” appears to be adopting a more hawkish stance as an early settlement in Afghanistan and declaration of victory is a key political imperative for Obama as he prepares to go to the elections in 2012.

The Financial Times says his death offers an opportunity to declare an end to the “war on terror”.  The FT declares, “the Bush-inspired drive to make terrorism the centrepiece of US foreign policy was a mistake. The declaration of a “Global War on Terror” distorted American foreign policy and led directly to two wars – in Iraq and Afghanistan. The war on terror has guzzled billions of dollars in wasteful spending and spawned a huge and secretive bureaucracy in Washington. The death of bin Laden gives President Barack Obama the cover he needs to start quietly unwinding some of these mistakes.”

{ See this for an international view: RT Interview }

Pakistani generals should quickly make up their mind. In today’s world, the notion of having a bunch of jihadis who can be used to contain India is a dangerous and out-of-date one. No world power, super, global, or regional, would support Pakistan against India given its rise on the global scene in the last decade.

Time is running out and the generals must decide if they want to wait till the US starts bombing the “good Talibans” and cuts Pakistan to its size so that it reconciles its strategic ambitions with its size and economic and military strength or they are ready to show some realism and opt for an honourable settlement that might pave the way for Afghanistan to return to a semblance of if not complete stability and peace. Pakistan’s strategic options never looked so limited thanks to its strategy and the “intellectual depth” of our military strategists.